near the end of the lunar calendar, market demand continues to shrink, and businesses and steel mills are still engaged in a white hot tug of war. the market price can't keep up, and the government may not be able to see it anymore. it has put a big "bomb" into the market. this morning, the council of cisa issued the spirit of the meeting: before june 30, 2017, all di tiao steel will be dismantled, which will become a political task, and 12 steering groups have arrived at various places. "di tiao steel" is once again called the protagonist, and the futures are more rapid. yesterday afternoon's trading, the spot market also has the phenomenon of following up. however, in the off-season demand, most of them are with or without market price. how about the market price of the steel market depends on the following points.
top supply and demand: according to statistics of cisa, the average daily output of crude steel of key steel enterprises in late december 2016 was 1.6638 million tons, an increase of 8200 tons on a month on month basis, with an increase of 0.49%. according to this estimate, the average daily output of crude steel in this ten day is 2.18 million tons, an increase of 7200 tons in ten day on month ratio, an increase of 0.33%; in addition, by the end of late december, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises is 12.3079 million tons, a decrease of 421700 tons, a decrease of 3.31% compared with the previous ten day. with the gradual deepening of rectifying illegal production capacity and the decrease of production growth and inventory due to environmental protection, this is the supply side; the demand side at present, with the approaching of the spring festival, the construction site operating rate is further reduced, the market turnover is obviously shrinking, and the government still tightens the regulation of real estate, the overall demand of steel market in the later period is still not optimistic.
second cost: in the near future, the price of iron ore, coking coal, coke and other raw materials fluctuated, and the profit of steel enterprises did not change much. in order to improve the production cost of some backward production capacity, the national development and reform commission and the ministry of industry and information technology implemented a more strict differential electricity price policy for the steel industry, which also showed the confidence of the state in energy production. but on the whole, the supply of coal coke and iron ore has become loose, the stock of raw materials in port and steel plant has been rising continuously, the short-term price of raw materials will still fluctuate, and the cost is difficult to form a significant support for steel price. but on the whole, the supply of coal coke and iron ore has become loose, the stock of raw materials in ports and steel mills has been rising continuously, the short-term price of raw materials will still be weak and volatile, and the cost is difficult to form an obvious support for the steel price.
the third policy: in the near future, environmental protection is the core factor affecting the supply of steel. with the continuous fog and haze in the near future, the blast furnace operation rate has declined in the whole december affected by environmental protection. however, in terms of the actual effect of environmental protection, the impact of recent environmental protection production restriction has weakened and the market reaction has been passivated. today, the government will dismantle "di tiao steel" to become a political task, which is obvious it shows the government's determination to eliminate production capacity, and the transformation from final capacity removal to output removal is expected to ease the situation that china's steel supply exceeds demand, which will contribute to the upward trend of steel market in the next year.
on the whole, many factors still need to be paid attention to whether the steel price can reach a new high next year. however, as the spring festival is approaching, the steel price that has been fired into the sky has deterred the middlemen. recently, the winter storage policies have been issued in various places, but the traders are still cautious in taking the goods. the author thinks that the short-term steel market still has pressure, and suggests that the traders should store the goods rationally.